Cannes 2021 Betting Thread

[nrh]

the french critics seem to be way higher on gray than the guardian (a predictable pattern in his career i guess) and overall the skolimowski seems to be doing way better than 3 stars...

[kabs]

I saw that French critics were also more positive about the Desplechin and yeah it does look like eo is the favourite at the moment.

[Silga]

[flip]

i forgot that last year i checked who did best - the cannes jury grid, the guardian, or letterboxd reviewers, all who had the benefit of seeing all of the films. it turned out the cannes jury grid best predicted the awards, so i probably shouldn't be quoting all these guardian reviews, but i've sort of made it a tradition so i'll keep going for this year at least. the jury grid is more reliable. but rabie and curtis both did better than the jury grid last year before anyone had even seen the films, so the best predictors at scfz are even better than the pros!

update for sunday:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) •••
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) •••
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi) ••

[flip]

update for monday -- we have the second 5-star film of the competition, per the guardian:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) •••
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) •••
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi) ••
Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg) ••••
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) •••••

[kabs]

The opinions on decision to leave are really varied-on the ICS's critics panel, it has the second worst average score just before Brother and Sister. At the moment, Eo is first, R.M.N. is second and then Crimes of the future is third.

[flip]

tuesday update - if the guardian review of the mario martone film has been published, i can't find it:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) •••
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) •••
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi) ••
Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg) ••••
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) •••••
Tori and Lokita (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne) •••
Nostalgia (Mario Martone)

[flip]

wednesday, the claire denis screened:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) •••
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) •••
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi) ••
Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg) ••••
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) •••••
Tori and Lokita (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne) •••
Nostalgia (Mario Martone)
Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi) ••••
The Stars at Noon (Claire Denis) •••

[flip]

guardian didn't like the kore-eda film, three films to go:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) •••
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) •••
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi) ••
Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg) ••••
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) •••••
Tori and Lokita (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne) •••
Nostalgia (Mario Martone) ••••
Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi) ••••
The Stars at Noon (Claire Denis) •••
Broker (Hirokazu Kore-eda) ••
Pacification (Albert Serra) ••••

[flip]

i guess the guardian isn't expecting much from the last film that will screen (mother and son/leonor serraille), because they've already posted their award predictions. they appear below the film list. their predictions don't line up with their star ratings precisely, so i separately modified them to fit in the one 5-star film they didn't give an award (well, they gave it the screenplay award but that's not a prize i was tracking in our scfz prediction contest). at the end i'll compare how the guardian, the jury grid, and that other compilation fared predicting the awards, and we'll see if anyone at scfz did better before even seeing the films.

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) •••
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) •••
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi) ••
Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg) ••••
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) •••••
Tori and Lokita (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne) •••
Nostalgia (Mario Martone) ••••
Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi) ••••
The Stars at Noon (Claire Denis) •••
Broker (Hirokazu Kore-eda) ••
Pacification (Albert Serra) ••••
Close (Lukas Dhont) ••••
Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt) •••
Mother and Son (Leonor Serraille) - not yet screened

predictions

The Guardian prefaced their predictions with this: "But I have never seen a Cannes like this for radical disagreement among critics on almost every single title: there’s hardly been a film here that hasn’t experienced a range of takes of all different temperatures" so it sounds like an unpredictable year.

The Guardian's predictions:

Palme D'Or: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
Grand Prix: Close (Lukas Dhont)
Jury Prize: Pacification (Albert Serra)
Director: Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi)

...though based on their own reviews, I imagine their reviewer would have given the awards in this way:

Palme D'Or: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
Grand Prix: The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen)
Jury Prize: Close (Lukas Dhont)
Director: Pacification (Albert Serra)

[flip]

looking at the ICS (Critics and Industry Panel) ratings, it appears they'd give out awards as follows (I'll check again tomorrow because the most recent films haven't been rated by everyone yet)

Palme d'Or: EO (Jerzy Skolimowski)
Grand Prix: Pacification (Albert Serra)
Jury Prize: RMN (Cristian Mungiu)
Director: Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg)

interestingly this barely overlaps with the Guardian predictions...

[flip]

...and the Screen Jury Grid list doesn't overlap much with the others either (the two films that screen today aren't on the Grid yet, so i'll edit this if they rate so well that this changes)

Palme d'Or: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
Grand Prix: Armageddon Time (James Gray)
Jury Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardenne brothers)
Director: EO (Jerzy Skolimowski)

(tori and lokita and eo tied, but i ranked tori and lokita ahead because it had a lot more variance in its ratings, and a film some people loved is more likely to win an award then one a lot of people think is decent, imo, could be wrong about that though)

[kabs]

The reviews I have read for mother and son are very positive so I think it should be a potential dark horse contender...

[flip]

it gets a 4-star review from the guardian too, now all their votes are in:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) •••
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi) •••
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi) ••
Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg) ••••
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) •••••
Tori and Lokita (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne) •••
Nostalgia (Mario Martone) ••••
Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi) ••••
The Stars at Noon (Claire Denis) •••
Broker (Hirokazu Kore-eda) ••
Pacification (Albert Serra) ••••
Close (Lukas Dhont) ••••
Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt) •••
Mother and Son (Leonor Serraille) - ••••

[flip]

it's pretty amazing that these cannes films now get hundreds of ratings on letterboxd -- five years ago, i bet they'd only have four or five ratings at this point. using letterboxd ratings, i can give the letterboxd cannes prizes to:

Palme d’Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) 3.87
Grand Prix: Close (Lukas Dhont) 3.86
Jury Prize: Broker (Hirokazu Kore-eda) 3.81
Director: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook) 3.76
Alternate: Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi) 3.59

on the latest ICS chart, the kelly reichardt film makes it into the top four, it tied with RMN, but i'll rank it lower because it has fewer reviews

Palme d'Or: EO (Jerzy Skolimowski)
Grand Prix: Pacifiction (Albert Serra)
Jury Prize: RMN (Cristian Mungiu)
Director: Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt)
Alternate: Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg)

i can't see the final jury grid, but a headline says the reichardt finished third, so i gather this must be their final ranking:

Palme d'Or: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
Grand Prix: Armageddon Time (James Gray)
Jury Prize: Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt)
Director: Tori and Lokita (Dardenne brothers)
Alternate: EO (Jerzy Skolimowski)

and i'll take this to be the guardian's prediction:

Palme D'Or: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
Grand Prix: Close (Lukas Dhont)
Jury Prize: Pacifiction (Albert Serra)
Director: Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi)
Alternate: The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen)

[flip]

from what i've read, a lot of people seem to think lukas dhont is the favourite, but his film doesn't top any of the lists above. the only film that even shows up on three lists is the park chan-wook, so i guess it would be a bit of a shock if that didn't win something. otherwise it seems wide open.

[flip]

the awards are in -- biggest surprise is denis winning the grand prix? i thought that film wasn't well received. maybe the palme is a surprise too but it seems to be every year

Palme D'or: Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund)
Grand Prix (ex aequo): Close (Lukas Dhont) and Stars at Noon (Claire Denis)
Jury Prize (ex aequo): EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) and The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch and Felix van Groeningen)
Director: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)

i have tabulated the results of our competition...

[flip]

of the sources that had the benefit of seeing the films before voting, two did better than any of us scfzers:

letterboxd: 20 points -- check out that list! it predicted the palme, grand prix and director awards all perfectly
the guardian: 13 points
screen jury grid: 8 points
ics panel: 5 points

last year, the jury grid did best, then the guardian, then letterboxd, so it's all flipped upside down this year.

neil young's film site listed betting odds before the festival even started, and those turned out to be very average -- they scored 9 points by my scoring. if that site had been competing with all of the scfzers who voted, it would have finished in the exact middle

[flip]

four scfzers participated, and unless i tabulated incorrectly, i think i won!

flip: 12 points
kabs: 10 points
rabie: 8 points
silga: 3 points

since i don't like to give prizes to myself, maybe i'll offer kabs the opportunity to pick our next poll, assuming the forum gets fixed and it's convenient to run polls again

[nrh]

denis co-winning grand prix instead of the dardennes was the surprise. kind of figured ostlund would win, because it's that kind of terrible year.

[rischka]

the elvis movie gets the longest standing ovation

[Silga]

I wonder if they had to announce that ‘ Elvis has left the building’ to stop the ovations.

[kabs]

flip, you can keep the prize if you want to. i don't feel I did that well, three of the films I chose completely failed me but i was so sure beforehand that they were going to give park chan-wook the best director prize. i am still surprised that claire denis won anything with the reviews she got but i kind of wish she got the palme d'or just for the reactions.

[greennui]

Cannes has def jumped the sharked by giving it to Östlund again.

[nrh]

i mean, cannes kind of jumped the shark by not putting denis in competition since chocolat when they are giving spots to...maiwenn?

[flip]

i mean, cannes kind of jumped the shark by not putting denis in competition since chocolat when they are giving spots to...maiwenn?

guess who made the 2023 cannes festival's opening film!

[flip]

cannes 2023 lineup announced, a ton of familiar cannes names in competition, so it's kind of a boring-looking list. maybe most interesting to scfzers: wang bing has a film in competition, and victor erice has a new film out of competition.

i'll start up our annual cannes betting thread some time soon

[nrh]

i mean, cannes kind of jumped the shark by not putting denis in competition since chocolat when they are giving spots to...maiwenn?

guess who made the 2023 cannes festival's opening film!

johnny depp post abuse trial comeback movie no less! in the photos he somehow looks less healthy than leaud in the death of louis xiv!

[rischka]

he's disgusting and i don't know why anyone employs him. he hasn't made a good film for years?

[greennui]

Kaurismäki new film best news.