Everything is Political

[kanafani]

My wener is soo tiny

Ah! Feels great to get that off my chest #expression

There is a Personal Matters sub-forum for this. Let’s stay focused here!

[greennui]

I'm just bemused to learn there's a prominent political pundit actually named Krystal Ball.

[kanafani]

I'm just bemused to learn there's a prominent political pundit actually named Krystal Ball.

The name Krystal came from her father, a physicist who wrote his dissertation on crystals.

[greennui]

Does she ever say I'm gonna look into myself, wouldn't surprise me, what with American show bizness and all.

[thoxans]

turned on the impeachment proceedings for five seconds, and the very first thing i hear is dem house majority leader steny hoyer saying 'i was around during reagan, george h.w. bush, and george w. bush... and i have great respect for all of them.' lulz. dems are so worthless. let's pretend that trump exists in a vacuum. let's pretend that he has absolutely nothing to do with the republican party as a whole. let's pretend that republicans aren't a bunch of appeasers, doing whatever they can to get their way, cuz the end justifies the means. and here we go again. dems gonna try to play footsie with the right. the right will then proceed to vote against every single meaningful thing that the dems propose. and the american people will vote the right back into power in at least one of the branches in the midterms cuz the dems couldn't do anything worthwhile for two years. sound familiar to anyone...?

[ole dole doff]

two things can be learned from the following video...
1/ BREXIT is harmful to Scottish export,
2/ "fishing industry" pronounced with a Scottish accent sounds like "fashion industry".
https://twitter.com/LochfyneLangous/sta ... 95328?s=20

[rischka]

glenn no longer thinks this is funny; he and tucker are outraged that twitter is censoring conservative speech

9 house republicans so far voting to impeach trump. credible reports of MAGA reconn led by GOP reps in the week before the riot

https://twitter.com/DemocracyOnEdge/sta ... 23329?s=20

edit: impeachment is passed with 10 republican votes. the donald has done something no other president has ever done. he must be so proud

[FLABREZU]

I'm way woker than Bure. He studied stats/economics (capitalism) while I took a class in cultural anthropology where my professor talked about how a shaman cursed him and he now has to live with the curse forever because the shaman died.

[greennui]

https://twitter.com/DrLisaCorrigan/stat ... 1636150281

[St. Gloede]

Happy new year all, 2021 will be the year national Norwegian politics could change forever, and as that is an interesting regardless of what your views are of the political spectrum I thought I should share a quick overview of what is happening and why it is important.


*Illustration from the 2017 election



Basic facts:

• Norway is a parliamentary system

• There are 169 MPs

• There are traditionally 7 big national parties

• As of the last election, there are 2 additional parties in parliament, but just with 1 MP each

-

• These 9 parties split into the left block and the right block.

• Each party declares their side before the election (not by law) and state which prime minister candidate they will support.

(In Norway we call them, directly translated: The Socialist Block and The Bourgeoisie Block/The Non-Socialist Block)

• The Conservative Party and the Labour Party were traditionally the biggest party of their respective block, and their party leader is almost always the declared candidate

The 2021 election will be held on September 13th.

Basic rules:

• Each province has a set of MPs to elect

• Each party submits a ranked list of MPs (voters can technically vote on individuals within the list and thus push a person upwards)

• The higher the party's percentage in the province, the more MPs are selected

-

• There is then national allocation for parties that are out of synch with the national average (i.e. otherwise you could get 10% nationally, but not get any MPs)

• To qualify for national allocation you need to get more than 4% nationally

IMPORTANT: This 4% rule can make or break elections, as parties making it will get 7+ MPs, not making it can lead to 0 MPs (unless strong in specific provinces).

The Parties: (and their result in the last election)





The Past and Allegiences

As you can see from the results above, there was a difference of just 7 MPs between the Left Block (the losers) and the Right Block (the winners).

Traditionally both the left block and the right block and two parties that could swing the election.

The Left consisted of one major party, the Labour Party, usually at around 40+%, and two smaller parties, The Socialist Left and the Centre Party (previously: The Farmers Party) - both the latter could get close to 4% in polls and sending everyone frantic - though it never happened.

The right consisted of two major parties, The Conservative Party (Standard Liberals) and The Progress Party (Nationalists, Populists), and two smaller parties - the Christian People's Party and the Liberal Party, these smaller parties would also frequently flirt with 4%, but again - it never happened.

What Has Changed - The Big Parties

Over the last 4 years something quite extraordinary has happened:

1. The Progress Party has reportedly halved their support (down to 1 third of their heyday). They have gone from being a party around the 20% mark to a party under the 10% mark - this means there is only 1 major party on the right: the Conservative Party.

2. Meanwhile, the exact opposite has happened on the left - The Centre Party - driven by a populist uprising against the centralization of the Liberal-Conservative government are now polling higher or equal to the Labour party. Both parties are now at approximately 20%.

3. For this to happen, the Labour Party has lost half their support over the last decade, and is smaller than ever before. They have been Norway's biggest party for about 100 years, and the only one capable of forming majority governments alone. Today, the conservative party is the biggest party, though only with a national average of 25%.

What Has Changed - The Smaller Parties

4. The Socialist Left is consistently increasing their support (after destroying their base when staying in government during the Iraq war), they are consistently polling at 7-8% - and they are the only smaller party out of the danger zone.

5. Neither of the smaller right block parties have polled above 4% in over a year. The Christian Democracts are consistently between 3.3% and 3.9%, meaning they still have a shot of going over. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party has a national average of 2.7% in January. Their highest national average in the last year was 3.5, and they are often under 3%. It will be impossible for the right to win power without both, or at least one of these parties going above 4%.

What Has Changed: The Micro Parties:

*While you need to reach 4% to be allocated MPs, you can get individuals elected from specific regions, and this is what The Red Party and The Green Party managed to do - both with 1 MP each. The Green Party has been in parliament with 1 MP for two terms, while the Red Party has been in parliament for 1 term.

6. The Red Party has gotten increasing support and is taking support for The Labour Party. They are consistently above 4% in all national polls (only below, at 3.6%, April last year). They often poll above 5% in individuals polls, but also often below 4%. They are likely to win through and enter parliament with a large group of MPs.

7. The Green Party is performing better in National averages than both the right block parties, and while at 3.8% this month, they have been above 4% in all previous national average. They are quite likely to enter parliament with a large group.

8. Both the Red Party and the Green Party have declared their allegiance to the Left block, though the Green Party flirted with both sides last election. (the only other party to do so is the Christian People's Party). Both of these parties could in the future switch sides, but at present it is unlikely.

What this means:

1. The Right block currently sits with only 40%, while the left block has 57% support. A change in government seems inevitable.

2. The Centre Party may be ther largest left-leaning party in the election, and it is possible that the prime minister will NOT be from the Labour party.

3. The two smaller right-leaning parties will most likely be replaced by 1-2 left-leaning parties - both achieving electoral success for the first time.

4. Possible big complications: Both the Red Party and The Green Party have aggressive environmental policies as key priorities and these clash with the sensibilities of Labour and the Centre Party. They will be kept out of power at all cost - and the "risk" is that the old Left block coalition will depend on these parties. Both the major left-block parties are also highly sceptical of the Red Party (despite moderating their push towards communism).

-

As a citizen, though I no longer live there - seeing 2 parties disappear and 2 new parties - rooted on mainly by younger voters coming into a large degree of power will at the very least be extremely interesting. It is also an odd shift for the left block - where in one way it is likely to go further left (with the Red Party gaining power) but in the other going right (with the Centre Party stronger than ever).

It is also a big change as the Centre Party stands for decentralization (slightly ironic I know) and we may see further devolution of power, and a re-strenghtening of infrastructure across the country - whereas the Liberal-Conservative government has, for the last 8 years, forced both Communes and Provinces to merge, removing hospitals, police stations, etc. to the anger and despair of people in rural areas - hence the Centre Party'æs unbelievable growth.

[ole dole doff]

The 2021 election will be held on September 13th.

thx for this overview!
looking forward to updates.
local 2021 election is supposed to take place on October 8-9th.
before it will happen, i will try to provide a similar overview of the local political landscape.

[ole dole doff]

Trump 'refusing to pay' Rudy Giuliani's legal fees after falling out
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... alling-out

Donald Trump has fallen out with his personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, and is refusing to pay the former New York mayor’s legal bills, it was reported, with the president feeling abandoned and frustrated during his last days in office.

According to the Washington Post, relations between Trump and Giuliani have dramatically cooled. Trump has instructed his aides not to pay Giuliani’s outstanding fees. The president is reportedly offended by Giuliani’s demand for $20,000 a day – a figure the lawyer denies, but which is apparently in writing. White House officials have even been told not to put through any of Giuliani’s calls.
Commenting on the report, Ken Frydman, who worked as Giuliani’s press secretary in the 1990s, said: “Lay down with dogs. Wake up with fleas and without $20,000 a day”.

[flip]

i'm interested in what will happen with last-minute pardons. i'm guessing trump withheld them til now so people would still feel obligated to do what he wanted so they wouldn't jeopardize their chances. but now that people aren't doing what trump wants, will he not pardon them at all? after all this, will giuliani be pardon-free and subject to federal charges? and with trump's rift with pence over the electoral college process, does that make it impossible trump will resign to give pence a ten-minute presidency so pence can pardon trump?

[Monsieur Arkadin]

Possible big complications: Both the Red Party and The Green Party have aggressive environmental policies as key priorities and these clash with the sensibilities of Labour and the Centre Party. They will be kept out of power at all cost - and the "risk" is that the old Left block coalition will depend on these parties. Both the major left-block parties are also highly sceptical of the Red Party (despite moderating their push towards communism).

Thanks for the in-depth write-up. I know literally nothing about Norwegian politics, and even the concept of parliamentary politics is a stretch for me to wrap my brain around, things like this are endlessly fascinating to hear about.

[ole dole doff]

1988 poll viewing No28:
THE LUDDITES (Richard Broad)
https://letterboxd.com/film/the-luddites/
https://youtu.be/RWIyRqn0Gj0

The Luddites could never have won but they left their mark on British folklore. Their supposed leader, King Ludd or Ned Ludd, was a fiction who was promoted as a Robin Hood character. During riots one Luddite might pose as King Ludd wearing a fancy costume and there was a certain amount of cross-dressing. Ringleaders would sometimes dress as women, calling themselves Ludd’s wives. Some Luddites favoured a particular brand of huge sledgehammer known as the Mighty Enoch for smashing machinery, and the tool was celebrated in ballads of the time.

[rischka]

that looks cool jiri

[ole dole doff]

https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/en ... tte-bronte
At first, factory owners ignored the protests. In frustration, some workers turned to violence, destroying the new machines they blamed for their economic problems. The vandals sent letters signed with the name "General Ned Ludd" (or variations of this name, such as Nedd Lud and Edward Ludd). Some historians think Ned Ludd was the name of an actual person, a man of limited intelligence who lived in the area of Leicestershire, England, around 1779. According to a story told about him, after being teased by village boys he chased his tormentors into a house. There, in frustration, he wrecked two machines used for making stockings. Other historians say that Ned Ludd was a real person involved in the antimachine riots. Still others insist that Ned Ludd was a fictitious character, a pseudonym (false name) used to disguise the identity of the letter writers.

What the authors of the Luddite letters had in common was an evidently limited education, which was not surprising since children as young as eight often stopped school and went to work helping their parents spin yarn at home, or later, to operate machines in the newly built factories. The Luddite letters reflect a degree of illiteracy and irregular spelling. In some cases, they are attempts to mimic formal legal documents.

Although the Luddites could not write perfect English, they were well organized. Their attacks on factories were not just random riots; they were planned, and often factory owners received threats in advance.

1/ This collection of documents illustrates several sides of the Luddites. The first document is a threat against a specific owner of new textile machines. It is written to sound like an official document, perhaps the writer's notion of a formal legal indictment (accusation), even though it was doubtless drawn up by workers who had no official standing.

2/ The second document is a Luddite oath. Many of these documents were collected by local officials and sent to the British parliament in London as a warning that trouble was brewing among textile workers. The oath indicates that the Luddites were an organized group that had specific goals, including keeping the names of members a secret.

3/ The third document is from a fragment of a paper that was delivered as a threat against a factory owner. It shows both the intent of the Luddites and the limited education of most workers in the era. (Because it is only a fragment, it contains some breaks that do not make immediate sense.)

4/ The fourth document is a letter from unemployed knitters to hosiery manufacturers in Nottingham, England. It was written early in the Luddite uprising and lays out the complaints of the workers.

5/ The fifth document is a fragment of a follow-up letter, purportedly written by Ned Ludd, one month after the previous letter from the knitters, warning that unless the stocking makers take action, they will have to face the consequences.

6/ The last document is an excerpt from the 1849 novel Shirley, a Tale, by Charlotte Brontë (1816–1855). This fictional account, written almost forty years after the attacks by the Luddites, describes a nighttime raid by disaffected workers, and the determination of a factory owner to protect his property. The main characters in the story are Robert Gerard Moore, who owns a textile factory, and Shirley Keeldar, a woman Moore is courting at least partly to gain access to her inherited fortune. The other two characters in this passage are Mr. Malone, a curate (assistant clergyman), and Caroline Helstone, a teenage friend of Shirley Keeldar. In the passage, Moore is waiting for some new machines to be delivered, ready to protect them from an attack by Luddites. Shirley and her friend Caroline are at home, not far from the factory, listening to the sounds of the attack that soon came.

Things to remember while reading various Luddite documents and the excerpt from Charlotte Brontë's Shirley, a Tale:

1/At the time of the Luddite movement, England was fighting a war against Napoléon Bonaparte (1769–1821), the emperor of France who was intent on spreading French power and influence throughout Europe. This war had a negative effect on the English economy and made the conditions of textile workers even more difficult. The promise of the new machines was to sell more cloth to customers worldwide, but trading opportunities were limited during the war against France. The result was widespread unemployment among textile workers, who blamed their woes on the new machines rather than on the restraints on foreign trade caused by the war with France.

2/ Britain's war with France made the Luddites seem especially threatening. The French Revolution (1789–99) had advocated equality for all men, whereas political power in England was still limited to property owners. Some people in England saw the Luddites as people who wanted to stage a revolution similar to the French Revolution, and for that reason the government was quick to come down hard on the Luddites, dispatching troops to maintain order.

3/ Many, or most, textile workers in 1811 did not know how to read or write. This illiteracy is reflected in some of the Luddite documents reproduced here. On the other hand, some of the documents reflect an effort to mimic legal documents, using terms such as whereas, enjoin, adjudge, and forfeited. The original spelling and appearance of the documents has been preserved here.

1/
Luddite letter threatening an owner of textile machines
Declaration; Extraordinary.
Justice.
Death, or Revenge.
To our well-beloved Brother, and Captain in Chief, Edward Ludd.
Whereas, ithath been represented to us: the General Agitators, for the Northern Counties, assembled toredress the Grievances of the Operative Mechanics, That Charles Lacy, of the Town of Nottingham,British Lace Manufacturer, has been guilty ofdivers fraudulent, and oppressiv, Acts—whereby he has reduced to poverty and Misery Seven Hundred of our beloved Brethren; moreover, it hath been represented to us that the said Charles Lacy, by making fraudulent Cotton Point Nett, of One Thread Stuff, has obtainedthe Sum of Fifteen Thousand Pounds, whereby he has ruinedthe Cotton-Lace Trade, and consequently our worthy and wellbelovdBrethren; whose support and comfort depended on the continuance of that manufacture.
Hath:
Have.
Redress:
Address.
Divers Fraudulent, oppresiv:
Illegal.
It appeareth to us that the said Charles Lacy wasactuated by the mostdiabolical motives, namely to get rich gain riches by the misery of his Fellow Creatures, we therefore willing to make an example of the said Charles Lacy, doadjudge the said Fifteen Thousand Pounds to beforfeited, and we do hereby authorise, impower, and enjoin you, to command Charles Lacy todisburse the said sum, in equal shares among the Workmen, who made Cotten Nett in the Year 1807, within ten Days from the Date hereof.
Actuated:
Moved into action.
Diabolical:
Sinister.
Adjudge:
Pronounce.
Forfeited:
Gave up rights.
Disburse:
Distribute.
In default whereof, we do command that you inflict the Punishment of Death on the said Charles Lacy, and we do authorise you to distribute among the party you may employ for that purpose the Sum of Fifty Pounds, we enjoin you to cause this our Order to be presented to the said Charles Lacy without Delay,
November 1811—By Order Thos Death

2/
A Luddite Oath
I, AB, of my own free will and accord do hereby promise and swear that I will never reveal any of the names of any one of this secret Committee, under the penalty of being sent out of this world by the first Brother that may meet me. I furthermore do swear, that I will pursue with unceasingvengeance any Traitors or Traitor, should there any arise, should he fly to the verge of—I furthermore do swear that I will be sober and faithful, in all my dealings with all my Brothers, and if ever I decline them, my name to be blotted out from the list of Society and never to be remembered, but withcontempt andabhorrence, so help me God to keep this our Oathinviolate .
Vengeance:
Punishment in return for an injury or offense.
Contempt:
Act of despising.
Abhorrence:
Aversion.
Inviolate:
Pure.
Signed Thomas Broughton.

[rischka]

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status ... 29089?s=20

[rischka]

https://twitter.com/JimBrownski713/stat ... 30947?s=20

eh it makes more sense than Q anon. what are Qs gonna do when trump's out of office and STILL hasn't arrested any of these child sex traffickers

[...]

Yeah, if they turn on Trump, once they find their new "white knight", they'll suddenly remember he once claimed to be a Democrat and friend of the Clintons, so it'll all be blamed on them as yet another of the many false flag operations the devious left uses. There's always another excuse and belief set just waiting to reprove what they already "know" is true. That's the way it works with fundamentalist cults.

[rischka]

of course. hillary the supervillain so powerful she's never been charged with a crime

i expect a full benghazi style investigation into all this

[greennui]

He's in quite a bind, no? Throwing them to the wolves might save his own skin but his post-presidency is gonna be awfully lonely if they don't stick around.

[...]

The more difficult concern, I think, for the right is that abandoning Trump completely doesn't leave them with a great choice to flock around as the true believer types are gonna want to use the values behind the storming of the capital as a point of pride, guys like Hawley and Brooks won't be able to back away from that and will want to push it even further, which kinda requires some lasting Trumpism, especially if Trump maintains any popularity and/or establishes the long mooted TV channel he was alleged to have wanted to do, for the grift obviously, back in 2016 before he won. Whether he goes to prison or how future charges play out against him will have some impact, but the right really wants to claim they've been wronged, so it either can be through Trump or because of him, giving the insurrectionist right a briefly tough choice to make to justify their next set of lies.

[Holymanm]

https://twitter.com/JimBrownski713/stat ... 30947?s=20

(I can't believe they've done this)

[rischka]

macauley culkin wants him digitally removed from 'home alone' lol

[rischka]

400,000 dead as of this morning. I dont know about yall but the mismanagement and denial sure feels like (non) accidental genocide to me. The anti maskers I see are all white people EDIT: 396,000 my bad. likely 400,000 by inauguration day

Also I'm starting to wonder if Tucker isn't positioning himself for a run. He had Jimmy dore on whining about censorship now. I suspect Tulsi gabbard could be his running mate

Yes Jimmy dore is another one I can't stand :p I can't think of a video pundit I like tbh. Chris hayes is ok. I'd just rather read

As for the trumps I think Ivanka is the most likely candidate

[rischka]

Am I the only one here who'll get a raise when minimum wage goes up ? I'm thinking yes

[rischka]

https://twitter.com/RVAwonk/status/1350 ... 76578?s=20

all the best people

[...]

If you're in an area with any population density at all, say a college town or city, then enjoy the raise while you can as rent is likely to rise to eat up the gain in income, if the experience of much of the Pacific Northwest is followed. When our minimum wage went up, the rents increased by, roughly, 200 bucks a month at approximately the same time.

My wage won't increase because we already had a "raise" and I was already making a slight bit more than minimum. So the bottom wages rose, but the wages just above barely moved at all. It raises the floor, but doesn't much impact the ceiling for hourly workers since they are deemed replaceable and small business owners hate wage increases.

[rischka]

i promise to calm down by friday