Cannes 2021 Betting Thread

[Rabie]

Oh, hey. i'm new here. this was the first topic i saw so just replied quickly lmao, thanks.
I read some of the archive ( great stuff ) and it seems that you already did all the obvious directors, so wild guess: Sion Sono. If you did it already then someone else should choose

[Holdrüholoheuho]

sorry to interrupt but, finally, there is a Cannes story i — as (b)east European — can relate to...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fore ... -n0g8hwjt2
Russian jewel thieves target stars at Cannes

Eastern European and Russian burglary gangs are increasingly targeting celebrities at the Cannes film festival, bribing security guards for tips and paying hotel staff for keys, experts have said.

Patrick Boffa, a leading security consultant based on the French Riviera, was speaking after jewelry worth an estimated £17,000 was stolen from the hotel room of the British actress Jodie Turner-Smith during the festival on Friday.

Boffa said that thefts from celebrities were becoming more common, with eastern European gangs taking a growing share of the market. Many thefts were hushed up to avoid bad publicity, he said.

....

unfortunately, the rest of the article is behind a paywall, and thus (without first robbing a mainstream actor/actress to get some extra cash that can be wasted on "The Times") i have to turn to an alternative (free) source (to get familiar with further criminal trivia).

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... m-festival

Hollywood star Jodie Turner-Smith has fallen victim to the curse of Cannes -- the jewellery thieves who regularly haunt the world's biggest film festival.

The British-born actress wore eye-catching Gucci gold and diamond jewellery to the red carpet premiere of her latest film "After Yang" on Thursday.

The next morning her suite at the Marriott hotel in the Riviera resort was broken into while she was having breakfast with her one-year-old daughter.

Police told AFP on Monday that they were investigating a theft of jewellery from the hotel but it was unclear whether the jewellery was Gucci's -- loaned for the premiere -- or the actress's own.

The star of "Queen & Slim" and the series "Nightflyers" and "The Last Ship" made no mention of her loss when she gave a "Women in Motion" talk at the festival Sunday.

But she tweeted later: "I didn't think I would be spending 2.5 hours in the police station on my final day in Cannes, but here we are."

It was the 34-year-old's first time at the festival.

Cannes have become a notorious hunting ground for international cat burglars with a member of the infamous Pink Panthers gang suspected of taking gems worth 103 million euros ($130 million) from the Carlton hotel in 2013.

That same year a 1.6-million euro Chopard necklace was stolen at the film festival and gems worth only slightly less also went missing.

Embarrassed police were found wanting again in 2015 when only a few days before the festival began 17.5 million euros worth of jewellery was taken from the Cartier shop on the Croisette.

Luxury brands often lend their choice pieces to stars to walk the red carpet at Cannes.

Police said the jewellery taken from Turner-Smith's room was not worth the tens of thousands of euros initially thought.

There was reportedly no sign of forced entry to her room.

The film industry bible Variety said one of the items taken was Turner-Smith's mother's wedding ring.

it seems (according to another source) only thieves from Russia, Romania, and Bosnia & Hercegovina were explicitly mentioned (for now, the rest of eastern Europe slipped out).

[Holdrüholoheuho]

next year, i am considering running the poll called Cannes 2022 Jewelry/Car Theft Betting Thread.

[rischka]

pink panther's gang LOL, not robie the cat??

[Holdrüholoheuho]

if "trickle-down theory" is not supposed to become an obscure "zombie idea", jewelry thieves are indispensable!


every "le gendarme de st tropez" can confirm that "no thieves = no trickle-down".


(east European) thieves are saving the repute of "Reaganomics" by making it viable (serving as the missing link of the "Reaganomics" circle).

[Holdrüholoheuho]

last but not least, not all the car thieves in Cannes are vagabonds from "eastern Europe".
gangs of Tory-supporting Turks with Goldman-Sachs backgrounds are also involved!

"Was I surprised the Prime Minister offered me the use of his Bentley for the evening? No.
Was it a good idea to keep it for a week in Cannes? Probably not."
— Efe Cakarel

[flip]

Oh, hey. i'm new here. this was the first topic i saw so just replied quickly lmao, thanks.
I read some of the archive ( great stuff ) and it seems that you already did all the obvious directors, so wild guess: Sion Sono. If you did it already then someone else should choose

Welcome to SCFZ! I'll start up a Sion Sono poll tomorrow - he's not a director we've polled yet. I'd normally check a director has enough views for a poll, but because this is a special poll, I'll just assume it will work out well (and Sono has a ton of credits anyway, so it should be fine).

[flip]

Cannes 2022 starts next week, so time for our annual Cannes betting contest! It seems a hard year to predict -- the lineup features films from four directors who have previously won the Palme d'Or (Ruben Ostlund, Hirokazu Kore-eda, Cristian Mungiu and the Dardennes) along with films from Claire Denis, Kelly Reichardt, Jerzy Skolimowski, David Cronenberg, James Gray, Albert Serra, Park Chan-wook and other familiar names. Here's the lineup, and then I'll post separately the rules for this year's contest:

Cannes 2022 In Competition

Armageddon Time (James Gray)
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh)
Broker (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin)
Close (Lukas Dhont)
Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg)
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen)
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski)
Forever Young (Valeria Bruno Tedeschi)
Holy Spider (Ali Abbasi)
Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi)
Mother and Son (Leonor Serraille)
Nostalgia (Mario Martone)
Pacification (Albert Serra)
RMN (Cristian Mungiu)
Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt)
The Stars at Noon (Claire Denis)
Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov)
Tori and Lokita (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund)

[flip]

To participate, just pick the films you think will win the Palme d'Or, the Grand Jury Prize, the Jury Prize, and the Best Director Prize, and pick one Alternate film for potential extra points. Ballots must be in by the time Cannes starts on May 17 (that's Tuesday next week!), so voters don't have the benefit of seeing Cannes film reviews before voting.

Scoring - using a system that rewards picking multiple award winners correctly over picking one particular award correctly (I changed the scoring this year to emphasize that even more) :

If your pick for the Palme or GJP wins one of the four awards: 5 points each
If your pick for the JP or Director award wins one of the four awards: 4 points each
If your Alternate pick wins one of the four awards: 3 points
If you pick the Palme correctly: 3 additional points
If you pick the GJP correctly: 2 additional points
If you pick the JP or Director correctly: 1 additional point each

If an award is given ex-aequo, I'll still award full points if you picked one of the two tied films.

Prize:
- glory! and the winner will have the option to decide on a poll we can run (that i'll tabulate), from one of our normal categories (director, established film genre, country/region), assuming the forum gets fixed to the point that running polls is again practical

Deadline: May 17

[flip]

my picks:

Palme d'Or: Leila's Brothers (Saeed Roustayi)
Grand Jury Prize: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
Jury Prize: Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund)
Director: Pacification (Albert Serra)

Alternate: The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen)

[flip]

cannes starts today! i'm hoping someone else will want to enter the prediction contest this year...

[greennui]

Dardennes wins something, easiest prediction ever.

[Rabie]

Palme d'Or: Decision To Leave
Grand Jury Prize: Tori and Lokita
Jury Prize: Showing Up
Director: Broker

Alternate: The Stars at Noon

[kabs]

Palme d'Or-Stars at Noon
Grand Jury Prize-Brother and Sister
Jury Prize-Mother and Son
Director-Park Chan Wook

Alternate-Showing Up

[Silga]

Palme d'Or: Broker (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
Grand Jury: Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin)
Jury Prize: Forever Young (Valeria Bruni Tedeschi)
Director: Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt)

Alternate: Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)

[flip]

i'm happy to see some entries! looking at the cannes schedule, the first in-competition film (tchaikovsky's wife) doesn't even play today -- reviews of it won't be out until 1pm ET tomorrow at the earliest, so anyone else who wants to participate, that's the new deadline, may 18 at 1pm EDT.

[flip]

two hours to the deadline!

[flip]

i've been looking for cannes betting odds listings for days, and finally i find one place that lists some, but i have no idea where they're from, probably the person just made them up. it's on 'neil young's film lounge', which might be something most people have heard of but i haven't: https://www.jigsawlounge.co.uk/film/reviews/cannes2022/

anyway, making a ballot from the top five on that site, it would look like:

Palme d'Or: Close (Lukas Dhont)
Grand Jury Prize: RMN (Cristian Mungiu)
Jury Prize: Stars at Noon (Claire Denis)
Director: Crimes of the Future (David Cronenberg)
Alternate: Mother and Son (Leonor Serraille)

what's interesting is the two favourites on that website didn't appear on any of our ballots, while the three longest of longshots (the eight mountains, brother and sister, and forever young) all did appear on someone's ballot. we'll see who was right!

[nrh]

think it's a website revamp but that neil young guy was i think doing cannes odds type stuff going years back...at least think we was an old school film blog guy who did cannes coverage.

[nrh]

also the mouret and bozon are out of competition? but at least the bellocchio is 300 minutes long? will deepika's outfits be good?

[Holdrüholoheuho]

next year, i am considering running the poll called Cannes 2022 Jewelry/Car Theft Betting Thread.

so, who is gonna shed the (glistening) whale tears this year?
after the infamous East European jewelry thieves (the missing link of the trickle-down Reaganomics) strike again.
bet!

WHO WORE WHAT JEWELS
https://whoworewhatjewels.com/category/cannes/

Best Jewelry At The ‘Final Cut’ Cannes Film Festival Premiere & Opening Ceremony

Bolder-than-ever chandelier earrings and statement chokers were the evening’s brightest stars at the opening ceremony & premiere of the ‘Final Cut’ at this year’s Cannes Film Festival.

DEEPIKA PADUKONE: Deepika Padukone isn’t called the Queen of Cannes for nothing. This year, the actress – who is on the jury- started the festival off with a bang, showcasing a stunning Sabyasachi statement piece – the Lucknow Rose. This deconstructed Maharani necklace has been crafted with extensively sourced multicolored gemstones and uncut diamonds.

LORI HARVEY: Harvey’s sunny yellow-tiered Alexandre Vauthier gown complete with diamonté brooch was accessorized with several diamond pieces from Messika’s Danseurs Aériens collection. But the pièce de résistance goes to her Shards of Mirror necklace – a striking & sculptural symmetric piece with its 341 pear-shaped diamonds going head-to-head without ever touching one another.

JULIANNE MOORE: Moore’s dramatic Bulgari High Jewelry emerald and diamond collar, from the Italian jewelry house’s Eden The Garden of Wonders collection, made its worldwide debut and was the saving grace of her Bottega Veneta red carpet look. What shocked us though, was that she wasn’t wearing Chopard!

REBECCA HALL: We reached out to fellow juror and English actress Rebecca Hall’s stylist Laura Lea Jones to inquire about her delightful earrings. Her response? They were her mom’s! Hall is definitely one to watch at this year’s Cannes festival.

EVA LONGORIA: Longoria surprised us with a choker from Chopard’s Red Carpet Collection featuring 8.36-carats of diamonds set in Fairmined-certified 18ct white gold along with diamond bands from the Haute Joaillerie Collection.

LASHANA LYNCH: We loved the pop of color from British actress Lashana Lynch’s cushion-shaped emeralds, which totaled a whopping 13.41-carats, from her Chopard ‘Precious Lace Collection’ earrings.

BÉRENICE BEJO: Adored the sleek and modern take on Boucheron’s iconic feather shape with French-Argentine actress’s mother of pearl and diamond embedded Plume de Jour statement earrings.

EMILIA SCHULE: The Russian-born German actress’s delicate lacelike diamond collar and earrings from Bulgari were one of our favorite traditional High Jewelry diamond looks to hit the opening day of the festival.

ROSSY DE PALMA: Did you know that the Spanish actress and model’s Deco style Boucheron High Jewelry earrings are paved with diamonds, onyx, and black lacquer in white gold?

KATHERINE LANGFORD: Katherine pulled a Jane Fonda Emmy jewelry moment by draping a gorgeous diamond and emerald Piaget High Jewelry necklace down her back.

URVASHI RAUTELA: There was no shortage of sparkle coming from the Indian actress who graced the Cannes carpet wearing gems from Messika by Kate Moss Exotic Charm High Jewelry collection.

IRIS MITTENAEVE: Talk about making a statement! The French model and tv host had all eyes on her with her Boucheron Hotel Particulier necklace containing yellow sapphire, rock crystal, mother of pearl, onyx, and diamonds. Nara, the doe ring, studded with diamonds graced her finger.

FARHANA BODI: Indian-born, South African-raised, and Dubai-based Instagram star dripped in several pricey diamond pieces from Renu Oberoi Jewelry.

[Holdrüholoheuho]

if me attending Cannes, i would try to steal Rebecca's mom's chandelier earrings...
(none of the statement chokers really speak to me.)

[Holdrüholoheuho]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ist-films/

Cannes guests warned of jewel thefts resembling ‘heist films’
Security specialists believe this year’s event will be a ‘bonanza’ for criminals

Daring heists are a staple of crime capers from The Ladykillers to Ocean's 11, but for celebrities in Cannes, these fictional felonies can become all too real.

Last year British actress Jodie Turner-Smith had jewellery stolen from her suite during the annual festivities on the Riviera, and security specialists believe this year’s event will be a “bonanza” for criminals starved of opportunities during the Covid crisis.

Stars in Cannes could be targeted by “fake cleaners” posing as staff to raid hotel rooms, according to close protection experts working the festival who have warned that actors face a host of threats which would not be out of place in a Hollywood heist film.

John Moore, whose company Westminster Security is providing VIP protection in Cannes, fears internet pranksters will be poised to ambush celebrities, thieves posing as millionaires will “blag” access to luxury yachts, and that criminals could avoid being recognised with the help of Covid face masks

Mr Moore said of the criminal contingent he fears will be flocking the Riviera this week: “It’s a bit like spawning season. They are all drawn there. It's a bonanza for them.”

He added: “You have stars and so on with jewellery worth millions, but when they are out at the afterparties, often their rooms are unguarded.

“They could be popping down to breakfast and someone can slip into their room.

“You’ve got fake cleaners and fake hotel staff, or people who have intentionally gotten employment there in order to pull off a burglary.”

The 75th Cannes Film Festival opens on Tuesday and is set to welcome stars including Tom Cruise, Idris Elba, and Lea Seydoux. It is understood security teams working to protect celebrity guests and national delegations will be wary of the town’s reputation as a site of lucrative larcenies.

...

Mr Moore has said that even the climate can be a problem for security, with ubiquitous sunglasses in southern France providing an easy disguise, especially when combined with face masks

Cannes’ “terrible” traffic is also likely to cause issues, with thieves on motorbikes able to pull up alongside the conspicuous luxury vehicles of celebrities, and rob them while they are stuck in traffic.

[flip]

i'll update this thread each day with the star rating given to each competing film by the guardian. i don't refer to the guardian for any particular reason besides that i know they review almost everything. one 5-star film has already screened!

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••

[kabs]

also this link to the ics cannes 2022 critics and industry panel: https://icsfilm.org/news/the-cannes-202 ... try-panel/

I wish I put the eight mountains on my list...

[flip]

update:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••

[Silga]

[ofrene]

gosh didn't know this exist-.- Palme d'Or to Park Chan-wook or Lukas Dhont i guess but whatever..

[flip]

friday update, the guardian did not like the desplechin film:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••

[flip]

two former palme d'or winning directors had films in competition today, so it was a big day... and the guardian didn't care for either film all that much:

Tchaikovsky's Wife (Kirill Serebrennikov) •••
The Eight Mountains (Charlotte Vandermeersch, Felix van Groeningen) •••••
Armageddon Time (James Gray) ••
EO (Jerzy Skolimowski) •••
Boy from Heaven (Tarik Saleh) ••••
Brother and Sister (Arnaud Desplechin) ••
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund) ••
RMN (Cristian Mungiu) is •••