As I have not commented on Norwegian politics in a while, this is a fitting time to do so, as, the last two weeks has changed how this election will go - but: we don't know in what way yet.
The
polling, which is generally consistent and stable, now seems completely
out of control.
2 weeks ago the leader of the Progress Party (a right-wing populist party), Siv Jensen announced she was stepping down after 15 years in the role. During this time she has been one of Norway's most powerful politicians, serving as the Finance minister and number 2 in the Liberal/Conservative Government until stepping out of the coalition a year ago (as it was hurting their poll numbers). The result was the party, which was once Norway's second-biggest party, and in every election other election in recent memory have been the 3rd biggest (out of 9 parliamentary parties) into poll numbers below 10%.
The response/solution is potentially unnerving - in her place we are likely to get
Sylvi Listhaug - who more than almost anyone else in the Progress Party is reminiscent of Trump in degrees of overt xenophobia and scaremongering, actively pushing socially Conservative culture war items - and even leaning into/not denouncing conspiracy theories. She is a figure that mobilizes the more extreme wing of a party, and enjoys controversy - and this leaves the question:
Will this send a signal that racism is ok, and will it turn the Progress Party into a more overtly controversial and extreme party - similar to the Fascist-curious "Sweden Democrats"? And if so - will this make them more or less appealing to the voters at large? If less - great - while the rhetoric being louder and more prominent will cause harm - the decrease of the party's status to a small party on the fringes/sidelines would also offer them decreasing amount of media focus, relevance and believability. It would also seriously infringe on their ability to affect policy. However, if it skyrockets them up in the polls - it is a far more sinister scenario.
There have been 4 polls since it was clear she was the front runner, with very different results.
However, in an additional, odd turn of events, the furthest left-leaning party (The Red Party) has the complete opposite polling as well - getting their worst poll numbers on one - and getting some of their highest - to the point of almost being bigger than the Progress Party in another ...
Let's see the numbers:
*The red line in the middle splits the left and the right alliances, the arrow pointing down shows the destruction of the Red Party - the arrow pointing up shows the rise of the Progress Party.
*The red line in the middle splits the left and the right alliances, the arrow pointing up shows the relative rise of the Red Party - the arrow pointing up down shows the loss of support for the Progress Party.
*Here we see a massive increase for the Red Party, and a small decrease (from an already low number) for the Progress Party.
*Here we once again see the Red Party in big trouble, while the Progress Party gets a very nice jum.
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From this it is very hard to get a complete picture, though balanced out, it would seem slightly more likely Listhaug will get the party an increase of support - while the Red Party - oddly - is in a bit of trouble.
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However, the election is still likely to tip to the left.
Based on the best poll for the left:
*If this would be the result, the Progress Party would only be the 5th biggest (and 5th smallest) party in parliament, with the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Centre Party and the Socialist Party all getting more MPs. The Red Party would only have 1 less MP (13 vs 12 out of 169 in total).
Based on the best poll for the right:
In this result, the Progress party would be the 4th biggest party by a sizable margin, with 24 MPs - and as the Liberal Party gets over 4% as well, they are also strong with 9 MPs. The Christian Democrats are under 2%, and only have 2 as a result - however - were they to go over 4% - they would get 7-8 (5-6 more) and in this case it would be a near-even election.
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Norway does not go to the polls until Septembber 13th - a lot can happen until then - and the election of Listhaug as the Leader of the Progress Party could change everything (especially if the Red Party can not get over the 4% threshold).
there's no serious effort to shore up the republic that i can see. letting GOP traitors participate in an investigation of the events they CAUSED??? they shouldn't even be allowed to participate in our democracy
