Cannes 2021 Betting Thread

[flip]

It's been two years since we've been able to do this! The Cannes Official Selection was just announced, and just for fun, here's a chance to guess based on very little information what will win the awards at Cannes this year.

To participate, just pick the films you think will win the Palme d'Or, the Grand Jury Prize, the Jury Prize, and the Best Director Prize, and pick one Alternate film for potential extra points. Ballots must be in before Cannes starts on July 6, so voters don't have the benefit of seeing Cannes film reviews before voting (not sure if any of the films have been released yet in local markets - that has happened before).

Scoring - using a system that rewards picking multiple award winners correctly over picking one particular award correctly:

If your pick for the Palme or GJP wins one of the four awards: 3 points each
If your pick for the JP or Director award wins one of the four awards: 2 points each
If your Alternate pick wins one of the four awards: 1 point
If you pick the Palme correctly: 3 additional points
If you pick the GJP correctly: 2 additional points
If you pick the JP or Director correctly: 1 additional point each

If an award is given ex-aequo, I'll still award full points if you picked one of the two tied films.

Prize:
- glory! and the winner will have the option to decide on a poll we can run (that i'll tabulate), from one of our normal categories (director, established film genre, country/region)

Deadline: July 6

The films in competition at Cannes this year are, with directors:

Annette (Leos Carax)
The Story of My Wife (Ildiko Enyedi)
Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven)
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Love)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Flag Day (Sean Penn)
Ahed’s Knee (Nadav Lapid)
Casablanca Beats (Nabil Ayouch)
Compartment No 6 (Juho Kuosmanen)
The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier)
La Fracture (Catherine Corsini)
The Restless (Joachim Lafosse)
Paris 13th District (Jacques Audiard)
Lingui (Mahamat-Saleh Haroun)
Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)
Nitram (Justin Kurzel)
France (Bruno Dumont)
Petrov’s Flu (Kirill Serebrennikov)
Red Rocket (Sean Baker)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
Titane (Julia Ducournau)
Tre Piani (Nanni Moretti)
Tout s’est Bien Passe (Francois Ozon)
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)

[flip]

also feel free to discuss the official selection in this thread. at first glance, it seems to me if they had added a dardennes film and a ken loach film, this would be the absolute most predictable set of films the cannes folks could have chosen -- tons of directors who are regularly in competition, very few unfamiliar names

[flip]

naturally you can edit any guesses up until the deadline, which i'll almost certainly do because my first try below won't even be based on looking into the films at all:

edit: i replaced the ballot i posted here with a new one in a later post

[Silga]

Palme d'Or: Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Love)
Grand Prix: The Story of My Wife (Ildiko Enyedi)
Jury Prize: Petrov’s Flu (Kirill Serebrennikov)
Best Director: Annette (Leos Carax)
Alternate: Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven)

[flip]

i just completely changed my ballot after reading about some of the films and directors

and i copied the typo in the farhadi film title direct from the cannes official page, fixed that now

[nrh]

they haven't announced jury members yet, right? just spike lee as president?

[flip]

i haven't seen any announcements about it

[flip]

reminder - cannes starts july 6th!!! not much time to participate in this

i'll probably look into the films a bit more and change my bets

[Rabie]

Palme d'Or: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)
Grand Prix: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Jury Prize: Ahed’s Knee (Nadav Lapid)
Director: A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)
Alternate: Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven)

[oscarwerner]

Palme d'Or: Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven)
Grand Prix: The Story of My Wife (Ildiko Enyedi)
Jury Prize: Annette (Leos Carax)
Best Director: A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)
Alternate: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)

[nrh]

Palme d'Or: Flag Day (Sean Penn)
Grand Prix: Red Rocket (Sean Baker)
Jury Prize: Tout s’est Bien Passe (Francois Ozon)
Best Director: Flag Day (Sean Penn)
Alternate: A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)

[ofrene]

Palme d'Or: The Story of My Wife (Ildiko Enyedi)
Grand Prix: Red Rocket (Sean Baker)
Jury Prize: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Best Director: Titane (Julia Ducournau)
Alternate: Casablanca Beats (Nabil Ayouch)

[Curtis, baby]

P: Carax
G: Dumont
J: Hansen-Love
D: Farhadi
A: Weerasethakul

[flip]

edit (july 6) -- this is my new ballot, after watching a few trailers:

Palme d'Or: Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven)
Grand Prix: Lingui (Mahamat-Saleh Haroun)
Jury Prize: Ahed's Knee (Nadav Lapid)
Director: The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
Alternate: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)


this was my first ballot, which i'm replacing now with the above, saving it for reference so i can see if watching trailers helps

Palme d'Or: The Story of My Wife (Ildiko Enyedi)
Grand Prix: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)
Jury Prize: Lingui (Mahamat-Saleh Haroun)
Director: Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Love)
Alternate: A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)

[flip]

i just updated my ballot, cannes starts today, not sure if the opening film, annette, has screened yet, but i figure since i'm not voting for it, it doesn't much matter if i change my ballot today.

anyone else is welcome to change their ballot before the end of today too, but if annette finishes screening and reviews are out, then please keep your vote for that film locked in place (e.g. if you voted for it for Grand Prix, it needs to stay there, but you can change anything else, and if you didn't vote for it, you can't add it after it screens)

at the end of today, voting is closed!

[flip]

i'll compile guardian star ratings for screened films here, but i'd be happy to use a different source if anyone prefers something to the guardian (in the past i've used the guardian only because they seem to post reviews for everything and they give a star rating to most films)

Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamiguchi) - *****
Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul) - *****
The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier) - *****
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson) - ****
Nitram (Justin Kurzel) - ****
Compartment No 6 (Juho Kuosmanen) - ****
Lingui (Mahamat-Saleh Haroun) - ****
Red Rocket (Sean Baker) - ****
Paris, 13th District (Jacques Audiard) - ****
Everything Went Fine (Francois Ozon) - ****
Annette (Leos Carax) - ****
Flag Day (Sean Penn) - ****
Ahed's Knee (Nadav Lapid) - ***
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) - ***
Casablanca Beats (Nabil Ayouch) - ***
The Restless (Joachim Lafosse) - ***
France (Bruno Dumont) - ***
Tre Piani (Nanni Moretti) - ***
Titane (Julia Ducournau) - **
Petrov's Flu (Kirill Serebrennikov) - **
Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven) - **
La Fracture (Catherine Corsini) - **

still waiting on reviews for these films...
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Love) -- reviews seem fairly positive?

[flip]

"Nordic romcom is an instant classic" - Guardian review of the Joachim Trier film

[Curtis, baby]

Fuck I had that as my alternate until the LAST MOMENT

[flip]

Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamiguchi) is the second Cannes film the Guardian has given a 5-star review

[wba]

Palme d'Or: Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven)
Grand Prix: Tout s’est Bien Passe (Francois Ozon)
Jury Prize: Annette (Leos Carax)
Best Director: France (Bruno Dumont)
Alternate: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)

[flip]

And Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul) is the third 5-star film per The Guardian

[flip]

Awards will be announced tomorrow. The Guardian's film critic made predictions, that align with their ratings:

Guardian
Palme d'Or: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Grand Prix: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)
Jury Prize: The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier)
Best Director: The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)

I guess enough people at Cannes are on letterboxd that the films all have a lot of ratings. So I can give out the Letterboxd version of the Cannes awards (I list the average letterboxd rating, and gave 'best director' to the fourth place film, doubtless the ratings will change but this is what they are at this minute) :

Letterboxd
Palme d'Or: The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier) -- 3.87
Grand Prix: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi) -- 3.81
Jury Prize: Red Rocket (Sean Baker) -- 3.69
Best Director: Titane (Julia Ducournau) -- 3.64
___________

Paris 13th District (Jacques Audiard) -- 3.62
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) -- 3.61
Annette (Leos Carax) -- 3.58
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson) -- 3.52
Compartment No 6 (Juho Kuosmanen) -- 3.51
La Fracture (Catherine Corsini) -- 3.45
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Love) -- 3.43
The Restless (Joachim Lafosse) -- 3.43
Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul) -- 3.37
Nitram (Justin Kurzel) -- 3.29
Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven) -- 3.28
Tout s’est Bien Passe (Francois Ozon) -- 3.19
Lingui (Mahamat-Saleh Haroun) -- 3.14
Casablanca Beats (Nabil Ayouch) -- 3.13
Ahed’s Knee (Nadav Lapid) -- 3.08
Petrov’s Flu (Kirill Serebrennikov) -- 3.08
The Story of My Wife (Ildiko Enyedi) -- 3.02
Tre Piani (Nanni Moretti) - 2.99
France (Bruno Dumont) -- 2.85
Flag Day (Sean Penn) -- 2.47

[nrh]

fwiw here's the screen "cannes jury grid," which includes guarding and others

[Joks Trois]

Are we betting that there won't be a single great film at that festival this year? If so, I will gladly accept.

[flip]

i'll take that bet! but i take your point too

i have hopes for the weerasethakul film at least, but i expect at least a couple of other things will be good

[flip]

and i forgot all about the Jury Grid -- thanks nrh! here's the Jury Grid-based prediction for the awards:

Palme d'Or: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamiguchi) - 3.5
Grand Prix: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul) - 3.4
Jury Prize: Annette (Leos Carax) - 3.0
Best Director: Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven) - 2.7

though Nitram and The Restless aren't included yet

we'll see which source predicts the awards best!

[flip]

shock winner:

Results

Palme d'Or: Titane (Julia Ducornau)

Grand Prix (ex aequo) : A Hero (Asghar Farhadi), Compartment No 6 (Juha Kuosmanen)
Jury Prize (ex aequo) : Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul), Ahed's Knee (Nadav Lapid)
Best Director: Annette (Leos Carax)


i'll figure out who won the contest soon!

[flip]

with the benefit of seeing all the films, here's how the Jury Grid, the Guardian, and Letterboxd fared:

Jury Grid: 5 points
The Guardian: 3 points
Letterboxd: 2 points

you could argue the Jury Grid (and maybe The Guardian) deserves an extra point, because I didn't count their alternates, and the Jury Grid's alternate would have gotten a point.

without the benefit of seeing any of the films, here's how SCFZ members did, saving the winner for my next post:

curtis, baby: 6 points (turns out it was good you didn't change your alternate!)
oscarwerner: 5 points
flip (before watching any trailers) : 4 points
flip (after watching trailers) : 4 points
wba: 3 points
silga: 3 points
ofrene: 2 points
nrh: 1 point

[flip]

but the winner is...

Rabie with 8 points. no idea who Rabie is, they have 1 post on the forum, so they just stopped by and decided they'd own all of us SCFZ veterans at the Cannes contest, and then haven't posted since. anyway, congratulations Rabie! if you're around, there is a prize: you'll be entitled to decide, if you'd like to, on a poll that SCFZ will run and that i will tabulate, either a director's poll or a genre poll. if you're around, pls post here!

and i tallied everything really quickly, i hope i didn't make any mistakes, if i did please let me know.

Palme d'Or: Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)
Grand Prix: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Jury Prize: Ahed’s Knee (Nadav Lapid)
Director: A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)
Alternate: Benedetta (Paul Verhoeven)

[flip]

and if Rabie doesn't reply within a few days, the prize will go to Curtis, baby!